How the Model Works
ClearContent Intelligence uses eight quantitative models grounded in peer-reviewed academic literature to identify potential mispricings on Polymarket before informed traders correct the price.
Markets Open at 50 Cents
When Polymarket creates a new sports market, it opens at approximately 50¢ — implying 50/50 odds — regardless of the actual probability. Argentina versus Haiti opens at the same price as France versus England, even though our model gives Argentina a 97% chance of winning.
This mispricing is not random. It is structural. Polymarket's automated market creation does not incorporate team ratings, recent form, surface advantage, or any domain-specific signal. The price reflects nothing but the act of market creation.
Our WebSocket listener fires within seconds of a new market appearing. The scanner runs every five minutes as a backup. We get in before the market price adjusts to reflect reality.
From 13 resolved predictions, every time we identified a market opening far from our model probability, the model was correct 12 times. The one miss (Lakers over Rockets) was a close game at 60.5% model probability — not a high-confidence call.
Eight Integrated Models
The Bradley-Terry Formula
Every probability in our model derives from the Bradley-Terry model, the standard academic framework for pairwise comparisons. The probability that team A beats team B is:
The key difference from standard Elo is β_elo = 1.927. Standard Elo uses an implicit β of 1.0. Our fitted value means Elo differences are 93% more predictive of outcomes than the standard formula assumes — a finding from Li & Li (2025) applied to our World Cup dataset.
Glicko Uncertainty Propagation
Each team has a rating (μ) and a standard deviation (σ). Argentina: μ=2141, σ=18. Haiti: μ=1518, σ=85. The uncertainty in the prediction propagates through the model:
Platt Calibration
Raw model probabilities are passed through Platt scaling before publication — a logistic function that adjusts for systematic over or underconfidence:
Kelly Position Sizing
Every signal includes the Kelly-optimal position size as a percentage of bankroll:
From Market Creation to Telegram Alert
Market Created on Polymarket
Our WebSocket listener receives the new_market event within seconds. The REST scanner polls every 5 minutes as backup.
Team Names Extracted + Elo Looked Up
The market question is parsed. Team names are matched against the database of 64 football nations, 42 UFC fighters, 73 esports teams, 27 tennis players. Both Elo ratings and σ values are retrieved.
M6 BT Probability Computed
P(A wins) = σ(1.927 × ΔElo/400 + home adjustment). Platt calibration applied. Glicko CI computed.
Edge Calculated
Edge = |P_calibrated − market_price|. Threshold: 8pp minimum to alert. Strong signal: 18pp+. Price velocity regime checked (STUCK / DRIFTING / FAST).
IPW Narrative Correction Applied
Google Trends popularity score checked. If the market exists primarily because the teams are famous (not because the match is competitive), edge is adjusted via 2D-IPW weight.
Telegram Alert Fires
Signal sent with: market question, model probability, current price, edge, limit bid (P_cal − 2¢), Kelly sizing, velocity regime label, and 95% confidence interval.
Predicted vs Actual Win Rate
A model that says 70% should win 70% of the time. This chart shows whether our predictions are calibrated — or whether we are systematically over or underconfident. The dashed line is perfect calibration. Our current two data buckets are shown with 95% Wilson confidence intervals. As n grows through the World Cup (target: n=71 by July 19), the confidence intervals will narrow and the calibration picture will become definitive.
| BUCKET | N | AVG MODEL | ACTUAL | 95% CI | STATUS |
|---|
Track Record
Every prediction is timestamped publicly before the event. No look-ahead bias. No cherry-picking. Every signal we alert on is recorded.
| DATE | PREDICTION | MODEL | MARKET | P&L (£100) | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep–Dec 2025 | Esports Q3 2025 (10 bets) | avg 91% | avg 57¢ | +£757.20 | 10/10 ✓ |
| May 2026 | Raptors win G6 | 51.1% | 36¢ | +£177.78 | ✓ |
| May 2026 | Pistons win G6 | 51.9% | 61¢ | +£63.93 | ✓ |
| May 2026 | Rockets win G6 | 60.5% | 40¢ | −£100.00 | ✗ |
| TOTAL — 13 bets at £100 each | +£906.82 | 92.3% | |||
£906.82 profit on £1,300 deployed = 69.8% ROI. On a £500 starting bankroll, this represents a 181% return. Six open positions (Chimaev, Taira, Volkov, LOUD, Arsenal, FDA) resolve by May 9.
Peer-Reviewed Sources
Every model component is grounded in published academic literature. We have read 14 papers and implemented findings directly into the model stack.