Prediction Tracker
Timestamped Public Predictions
ALL-TIME ACCURACY
92.3%
12/13 resolved
BRIER SKILL SCORE
+0.49
vs 0.0 naive baseline
OPEN PREDICTIONS
6
across 3 domains
PEAK EDGE
+53pp
Chimaev vs Strickland
| TIMESTAMP | PREDICTION | DOMAIN | MODEL | MARKET | EDGE | STATUS | RESOLVES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 11:00 | Khamzat Chimaev wins UFC 328 MW Title | UFC | 61.3% | 8¢ | +53.3pp | OPEN | May 9 |
| 2026-05-03 11:00 | Tatsuro Taira wins Flyweight Title | UFC | 84.1% | 62¢ | +22.1pp | OPEN | May 9 |
| 2026-05-03 11:00 | Alexander Volkov beats Cortes-Acosta | UFC | 73.8% | 63¢ | +10.8pp | OPEN | May 9 |
| 2026-05-03 10:45 | LOUD beats Cloud9 — VCT Americas | ESPORTS | 61.2% | 61¢ | +0.2pp | OPEN | May 3 |
| 2026-04-12 09:30 | Arsenal advances UCL semi-final | FOOTBALL | 58.7% | 52¢ | +6.7pp | OPEN | May 5 |
| 2026-04-15 14:20 | Psychedelic therapy FDA approval 2026 | HEALTH | 54.0% | 47¢ | +7.0pp | OPEN | Dec 31 |
| TIMESTAMP | PREDICTION | DOMAIN | MODEL | MARKET | EDGE | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 09:00 | Cavaliers vs Raptors — Raptors win G6 | NBA | 51.1% | 36¢ | +15.1pp | CORRECT |
| 2026-05-01 09:00 | Pistons vs Magic — Pistons win G6 | NBA | 51.9% | 61¢ | -9.1pp | CORRECT |
| 2026-05-01 09:00 | Rockets vs Lakers — Rockets win G6 | NBA | 60.5% | 40¢ | +20.5pp | MISS |
| 2025-Q3 | Esports Q3 2025 — 10 predictions | ESPORTS | avg 72% | avg 52¢ | avg +20pp | 10/10 |
| PREDICTION | DOMAIN | MODEL | EST. OPEN | EST. EDGE | STATUS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina beats Haiti — WC 2026 Group | FOOTBALL | 97.3% | ~50¢ | +47.3pp | PRE-LOGGED |
| Brazil beats Jordan — WC 2026 Group | FOOTBALL | 94.5% | ~50¢ | +44.5pp | PRE-LOGGED |
| Spain beats Haiti — WC 2026 Group | FOOTBALL | 95.4% | ~50¢ | +45.4pp | PRE-LOGGED |
| France beats Haiti — WC 2026 Group | FOOTBALL | 94.3% | ~50¢ | +44.3pp | PRE-LOGGED |
| + 18 further World Cup predictions pre-logged — markets open ~June 1 | |||||